Научная электронная библиотека ULRICH'S Periodicals Directory

Сибирский государственный университет
науки и технологий имени академика М.Ф. Решетнева

Сибирский аэрокосмический журнал
ISSN 2712-8970 (Print) ISSN 2782-5760 (on-line)

Сведения об образовательной организации

UDK 629.7: 330.4:519.2
BUSINESS MODEL OF RISKS EVALUATION OF PROJECTS
A. I. Orlov, A. D. Tsisarskiy
Bauman Moscow State Technical University 5/1, 2-ya Baumanskaya Str., Moscow, 105005, Russian Federation
When modeling the life cycle of the program for the creation of science-intensive products, it is necessary to take into account the risks which are specific for the creation of rocket and space technology. In this article we offer the new kind of organizational and economic models for estimation the risks of projects for creating rocket and space technology. In it, for the first time, we consider the generalization of the additive-multiplicative model of risk estimation. In a two-level scheme at the lower level, risk assessments are combined additively, at the top level – multiplicatively. We use the additive-multiplicative model to estimate the risks of projects for creating rocket and space technology. There are 44 private risks at the lower level and 8 at the top, respectively, the stages of project implementation. The additive-multiplicative model is also useful for solving other problems of risk estimation. We applied it to estimate the risks of implementing innovative projects in universities (with the participation of external partners) and to estimate the risks in the release of new innovative products. We consider successively the main elements of a new model of risk estimation models: a hierarchical risk system, an expert risk estimation of the lower level, an aggregation of the risks in the lower group to calculate the higher-level group risk, use of the estimation results for risk management, the consequences of the failure of terms and methods for overcoming them. For the creation of a hierarchical system of risks, the next step is the construction and application of a low-level expert risk estimation (private risk) system. It is natural for an expert to use non-numerical characteristics for estimation, so it is natural to give the risk estimations of a specific project for creating rocket and space technology using linguistic variables. Values of linguistic variables we can obtain directly from experts in the form of scores from the series 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. With further development of the organizational and economic model of risk estimation of projects for the purpose of in-depth description of uncertainties, other mathematical tools based on theory of fuzzy sets and interval mathematics can be used. Perspective methods of aggregating risk estimations assume the use of weighted Kolmogorov's means, weighted medians I and II types. Estimation results we use in risk management. The approach and the mathematical model which we develop in this article can be useful for project managers who carry out their activities in the rocket and space industry.
Keywords: risk, estimation, modeling, projects, rocket and space technology, probability, expert procedures.
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Orlov Alexander Ivanovich – Dr. Sc. (Eng.), Dr. Sc. (Econom.), Cand. Sc. (Phys.-Math.), professor of Bauman

Moscow State Technical University. E-mail: prof-orlov@mail.ru.

Tsisarskiy Alexander Dmitrievich – Cand. Sc., Docent, Bauman Moscow State Technical University. E-mail:

93105948@tsniimash.ru.